This forecasting dataset aggregates collective predictions on domestic and international political, electoral, economic, and cultural issues, providing real-time outcome probabilities and how they change over time.
Potential Use Cases
- Forecasting Model Evaluation: Aggregated collective probabilities serve as a baseline for scoring a model's own forecasts on issues whose outcomes have not yet been determined.
- Modeling Forecast Changes Over Time: Because probabilities are recorded as trends rather than single-point values, the data supports training models that revise their forecasts as an issue develops.